5 things I have been thinking about the election.
1. Will turnout matter. I think we will have a different electorate than 4 years ago and it will be interesting to see who turns out to vote.
2. Will there be a silent Trump vote. Trump is a weird candidate and I suspect there are people who will vote for him and not want to admit they will. How many?
3. The misogyny anti-Clinton vote. We know that some people will not vote for a woman. Generally, the literature I have seen says it is not significant and I hope that is right but again this will largely be hidden and so it will not show up in the polls.
4. Has the main stream media ever been so wholly against a candidate the way they are against Trump? Will this matter.
5. Can Hillary Clinton have a good finish. Clinton is not a natural candidate and makes mistakes. Can she avoid the pitfalls and finish strong?
Sunday, August 21, 2016
Saturday, May 28, 2016
Monday, May 23, 2016
Stop paying attention to head to head polls at this point. We need to look at the state polls after the conventions.
I wish all the people who have head to head polls would realize that what matters is winning the individual states to win the electoral college and stop trying to get us to think the national numbers at this point in the race mean anything.
Friday, May 20, 2016
If the Democrats retake the Senate Bernie Sanders would be chairman of the Senate Budget committee. This job is much more powerful than being VP. Would he take VP if offered? I would not if I was him. He is 74 and would be unlikely to get another shot at running for President so why take the VP?
Monday, May 16, 2016
Rubio left his senate seat to run for President. Now out of office it would make sense for him to be a VP. For Trump Rubio would bring energy and youth. It makes more sense than a 73 year old Newt Gingrich.
Monday, May 9, 2016
For the last year I have wanted a Republican candidate for President that could win states that Romney lost. For instance, I knew Kasich could win Ohio. I believe Bush could have won Florida. But I cannot see any state that Trump can win that Romney lost. The only way Trump wins is if Clinton cannot turn our her base and the minority vote is substantially less than 4 years ago.
Sunday, May 8, 2016
Right now I can see no way that Trump can win the Presidency. I can see a way for Clinton to lose but that is not likely. For Republicans the future is about who can survive the coming Trump loss. That is especially true for the Senators running for reelection.