2012 and the future

My crystal ball
 1.  Romney will the the Republican nominnee
 2. Marco Rubio will be the the Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee.
 3. Despite running the most negative campaign in history President Obama will lose and it will not be close.
 4. The Republicans will recapture the Senate and keep the House but both will have small margins of victory and it will be hard to govern.
 5. The Supreme court will find that the Affordable Care Health Care is in violation of the Constitution putting the first real limit on the Commerce clause and forcing the Republicans to find a new bill that will not work.
6. There will be no real reduction in spending.

Merry Christmas to all!

To everyone Merry Christmas!  To Christians the greatest story of Love! To non-Christian's this is a day when we care about everyone and hope you have a great day also!

Christopher Hitchens RIP

Hitchens was a great writer.   I really enjoyed reading him even when I didn't agree with him.  I know he didn't believe in God but any God would find him interesting so I hope to see him some time and the youthful Hitch who lived large.  God  Speed and may you be in heaven a half an hour before the devil knows your dead.

Social Mobility and History

In my last post I began talking about social mobility.  One friend commented about my statement about social mobility and history.  Throughout most of history there was little social mobility.  As I pointed out about about George Bernard Shaw's great play Pygmalion written in 1916 which was a play on social mobility.  It revealed that social mobility was frustrated by language, morals, manners, history and attitudes.  These facets of keeping people in their place were as important as class, economics, or education.  And in many places you can add caste to the list.

Modern social mobility with movie stars, sports stars, and other famous people generally has no language, morals, manners, history, class or any other barrier to mobility.  So, I do think modern social mobility is more diverse and different than the social barriers to mobility in history.

The complex nature of modern social mobility.For the left and many of my friends social mobility has been limited by the serious problem of bad public schools. For the right social mobility is taken for granted as we see the rapid change in status of movie stars, sports stars, and the heads of large corporations who often came from a different social standing than where they ended. All of this means that social mobility is complex and that trying to score points politically is probably easier than really analyzing social mobility in its complexity. Let’s start by acknowledging that history is no guide to social mobility. I spent much of my professional carrier studying Winston Churchill. Great Britain before WWI had little or no social mobility and it was easier for an American heist like Jennie Jerome, Winston Churchill’s mother, to marry into British society than for an average British woman to move up. Pygmalion, the great British play (that was eventually the basis of My Fair Lady,) showed how social mobility was based on many different aspects of British society including language, posture, and actions. In this country I believe social mobility was not anywhere near as fixed as it was in Great Britain but social mobility was really accelerated in the post World War 2 period. The GI Bill and the expansion of colleges meant that many people moved and social mobility accelerated. The public educational system worked well in the 1950’s and 1960’s to provide an educated work force for growing American economy. During the 1970’s stagflation and income stagnation meant that Woman entered the work force in large numbers to preserve the family income. Two earner families meant that social mobility continued but it also meant that many other problems would emerge including the problems in public education. From the 1970’s until today public education has fallen behind and is probably the source of much of the drop in social mobility. Yet, couples who marry, stay together and are reasonably healthy have maintained their positions in society. Single mothers, Divorce, and many other factors make it easy to fall down the economic scale. Because of Junior/community colleges Americans have the ability to reinvent themselves. They have the opportunity to flourish. I know some think social mobility has been limited but I remember a former car pool partner who was Belgian and how much he was amazed by how many opportunities America presented and how much Americans could just get ahead by working hard. I will right more about this as I research more about it but after yesterday I wanted to write more about it.For the left and many of my friends social mobility has been limited by the serious problem of bad public schools. For the right social mobility is taken for granted as we see the rapid change in status of movie stars, sports stars, and the heads of large corporations who often came from a different social standing than where they ended. All of this means that social mobility is complex and that trying to score points politically is probably easier than really analyzing social mobility in its complexity. Let’s start by acknowledging that history is no guide to social mobility. I spent much of my professional carrier studying Winston Churchill. Great Britain before WWI had little or no social mobility and it was easier for an American heist like Jennie Jerome, Winston Churchill’s mother, to marry into British society than for an average British woman to move up. Pygmalion, the great British play (that was eventually the basis of My Fair Lady,) showed how social mobility was based on many different aspects of British society including language, posture, and actions. In this country I believe social mobility was not anywhere near as fixed as it was in Great Britain but social mobility was really accelerated in the post World War 2 period. The GI Bill and the expansion of colleges meant that many people moved and social mobility accelerated. The public educational system worked well in the 1950’s and 1960’s to provide an educated work force for growing American economy. During the 1970’s stagflation and income stagnation meant that Woman entered the work force in large numbers to preserve the family income. Two earner families meant that social mobility continued but it also meant that many other problems would emerge including the problems in public education. From the 1970’s until today public education has fallen behind and is probably the source of much of the drop in social mobility. Yet, couples who marry, stay together and are reasonably healthy have maintained their positions in society. Single mothers, Divorce, and many other factors make it easy to fall down the economic scale. Because of Junior/community colleges Americans have the ability to reinvent themselves. They have the opportunity to flourish. I know some think social mobility has been limited but I remember a former car pool partner who was Belgian and how much he was amazed by how many opportunities America presented and how much Americans could just get ahead by working hard. I will right more about this as I research more about it but after yesterday I wanted to write more about it.

For the left and many of my friends social mobility has been limited by the serious problem of bad public schools. For the right social mobility is taken for granted as we see the rapid change in status of movie stars, sports stars, and the heads of large corporations who often came from a different social standing than where they ended. All of this means that social mobility is complex and that trying to score points politically is probably easier than really analyzing social mobility in its complexity.

Let’s start by acknowledging that history is no guide to social mobility. I spent much of my professional carrier studying Winston Churchill. Great Britain before WWI had little or no social mobility and it was easier for an American heist like Jennie Jerome, Winston Churchill’s mother, to marry into British society than for an average British woman to move up. Pygmalion, the great British play (that was eventually the basis of My Fair Lady,) showed how social mobility was based on many different aspects of British society including language, posture, and actions.

In this country I believe social mobility was not anywhere near as fixed as it was in Great Britain but social mobility was really accelerated in the post World War 2 period. The GI Bill and the expansion of colleges meant that many people moved and social mobility accelerated. The public educational system worked well in the 1950’s and 1960’s to provide an educated work force for growing American economy.

During the 1970’s stagflation and income stagnation meant that Woman entered the work force in large numbers to preserve the family income. Two earner families meant that social mobility continued but it also meant that many other problems would emerge including the problems in public education. From the 1970’s until today public education has fallen behind and is probably the source of much of the drop in social mobility.

Yet, couples who marry, stay together and are reasonably healthy have maintained their positions in society. Single mothers, Divorce, and many other factors make it easy to fall down the economic scale.

Because of Junior/community colleges Americans have the ability to reinvent themselves. They have the opportunity to flourish. I know some think social mobility has been limited but I remember a former car pool partner who was Belgian and how much he was amazed by how many opportunities America presented and how much Americans could just get ahead by working hard. I will right more about this as I research more about it but after yesterday I wanted to write more about it.

Can the Republican's running beat President Obama?

Spatula one of my friends asked based on the feelings for the candidates can any of these current Republicans beat President Obama?  My answer is simple, any Republican can beat Obama but they have to run a good campaign to win.  President Obama is beatable because of the economy, health care, and excessive spending.  If the election comes down to a referendum on Obama's policies he is toast.  Yet, the campaign will matter because the President is raising a billion dollars and most of that will be used against the Republican nominee.
I generally believe this election is setting up like 1980 where the voters are worried and voting will be against the incumbent but a billion dollars makes all this more complex than before.

Newt, Mitt and the future of the Republican Party

I left the party system a while ago because it was clear that there is a great difference between the parties in power and the parties out of power.  The Republican race this year seems to becoming a race between two well known figures--Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House, and Mitt Romney the former Governor of Massachusetts.  These are well known establishment figures in the party.  In power they are likely to be safe figures but can they withstand the pressures to spend that will be key to the future.  I know that Romney is talking the right talk.  Newt was a mixed bag of spending and good balancing when he was speaker.  I am comfortable that either would be better on spending than President Obama but how would they be as President.  Romney has the temperament and experience with big international events like the Olympics.  Newt has more ideas than any current politician and has the age and experience to know who he is.  I could live with either but I think Romney is more electable.  None of the candidates I really wanted, like Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan ran so I will support the Republican nominee but neither really excites me. 

Borrowing and spending will never solve the current economic problems

The problem with the economy is borrowing.  Individuals borrowed too much money for houses they could not afford.  Business borrowed to buy the bundled mortgages and lost money.  The government has a $14 trillion dollar national debt.  Japan has spent 10 years trying to borrow and spend its way to growth.  You can not borrow and spend to solve borrowing and spending.  We need real long term growth based on savings and productivity.  The idea that government creates long term jobs from borrowing is what is wrong. John Maynard Keynes is wrong and just gives politicians an excuse to borrow and spend.  More spending just delays the inevitable need to hit bottom before we can grow.  Keynes and his modern followers are the problem since they are the politicians enablers who justify the spending which must be ended.  Can we stop spending before we are in a crisis?  I do not know but if we do not we will follow the same path as Japan!   

Electoral College

Every 10 years the House of Representatives is redrawn with the new census.  The number of electors each state gets is based on the number of Representatives and Senators.  So the 2012 electoral college will be the first new one after the 2010 census and this new map will make President Obama's reelection less likely since some of the States he won last time have lost electors.

The next Presidential Election

I am working on a thesis that President Obama is more likely to lose fifty states instead of getting  reelected.  The reason I believe this is the recent statistics on the net worth of American families, the energy in the Republican party, the new electoral college, and the lack of energy in the young.  I would be interested in others thoughts on the subject.

9/11/01

Never forget and stay vigilant so that we may be free.  Thanks to all the solders and the fallen.  Thanks to all working today to make us safe.

The Chicago Bears

The Bears are in training camp which is one of the best things about what is going on right now.   I like many of their free agent moves.  Kreutz was a real leader but the middle of the Bears offence had not been able to make 3rd or 4th and short for 2 or 3 years.  The sacks had been coming right down the middle.  We will miss his leadership but Kreutz was too small and too old for the Bears to get better.  I look forward to the season and I hope the Bears are better.  The line play on offence and defense is where they need to be better and this is an open question.

How to fix the American Economy!

I know this is politically hard but this is my plan:

How to turn the Economy around and create jobs!
1. Roll back all new regulations to 2008
2. Promise no new regulations during the next two years.
3. Roll back business taxes to the lowest in the World
4. Sign new trade agreements with South Korea and Columbia
5. Cut government spending and agree to reform entitlements

To all who have given their lives for America!

Happy Memorial Day!  All the men and woman who have fought to make America free and the best place in the world I praise you.  All who have fought and died I remember you.  I hope that you all have a great day but do not forgot those who made it possible!

Game of Thrones and the sequels

I started watching the Game of Thrones on HBO.  It was ok.  The books are better but he really likes moving from character to character and the themes are very confused.  Some characters are interesting and others not so much.  There is sex but it is not like in HBO and very much secondary to the contending groups for leading.  All this is in a very creative world.  It is like nothing I have read and is a good way to spend a summer reading.  I am in the third book A Storm of Swords and it will take me the rest of May!

Medicare and the election.

Medicare is breaking us and Medicaid is also a problem.  Any real analysis knows that we do not have the money for either program in the long run.  We need to reform these and that is why many people think Representative Paul Ryan is a hero.  The people against him still do not have a program that will change the way health care works.
I believe that until we see a budget from the Senate we do not know what the final version of this will be.
I think we need to change the way we do health care under these three ideas:
1. We need to end the way we sue doctors with no reward for pain and suffering at a federal level with no room for changes by the states.
2. We need to be able to buy insurance across state lines.
3. We need to cut Medicare and Medicaid.

President Obama and the Middle East

All of my lifetime Presidents have been trying to figure out how to deal with the Middle East.  The first and real reason that Presidents are trying is because we do not have a real energy policy that will make us independent of middle eastern oil.   Second, we have always supported Israel since its creation.  Third, Presidents see the opportunity for real lasting fame if they can end the Israel/Palestine split.  President Obama left his mark yesterday by stating that the US believes that any peace should be based on the pre-1967 borders.  Unfortunately, this is not possible because it would leave Israel only 8 miles wide at its narrowest point.
My answer is always we need an energy policy then we can leave the Middle East and then we can be an honest broker of peace.

Was Donald Trump ever really running for President?

There is some speculation that Trump was serious in thinking about running for President.  Yeah, serious like a new reality TV show.  Trump had serious personal flaws and no political experience.  I think Trump saw that he could not lose--he would feed his ego, his place in society, and had more fodder for TV.

Pinches Tacos in Homewood Ala

Great Mexican food in Alabama is not common.  We have lots of Tex-Mex places and they are all similar in what they offer and how they cook.  We had lunch today at Pinches Tacos in Homewood. This is a small chain of restaurants with two in California and one in Alabama.  The food is real deal Mexican like I remember on the South side of Chicago at the feasts in the Churches.  I have not had food like this since the last time I was in Chicago.  The restaurant has counter service and is not real expensive.  The food is what fast food should be--well done at a fair price.  The restaurant is at the corner of Exmoor Road and 19th street.

Why are conservatives wasting their time with Herman Cain?

No one has won the Presidency since Eisenhower without any political experience.  Many of my conservative friends keep telling me that Cain's business experience replaces political experience.  Then some say Obama did not have much political experience but he served in both the Illinois legislature and the Senate.  Jesse Jackson and Pat Robertson are examples of people who have run for the Presidency with no political experience and lost.  Ross Perot, with all his money could not win.  If Conservatives want a symbolic vote then by all means vote for Cain but if you want to win you better find a candidate who has a record to run on.

New Blog

I used to blog at www.politicalman.blog-city.com. I am now here after blog city stopped hosting. I hope to continue my old blog but this gives me a chance to try something new