Georgia

Early Analysis

1.       It was incredibly close in both Senate seats, but the Democrats look like they will win both.  With Biden’s win in Georgia it is worth looking at how this happened and if Georgia is indeed now a Democratic dominated state.

2.       The Republicans did not come out in anywhere near their historic levels and so the Democrats won.  We have seen this before in Alabama when Doug Jones beat Roy Moore many Republicans in Alabama just didn’t vote.  When George Bush (41) lost his re-election bid after raising taxes many Republicans stayed home.  What we don’t know yet is why the Republicans in Georgia stayed home.

3.       Candidates matter.  Kelly Loeffler was appointed to fill out the term of Johnny Isakson when he resigned.  Loeffler had no political experience and turned out to be less than able to impress the Georgia voters.  David Perdue’s race was closer and may have had more to do with national trends than him as a candidate.

4.       Runoff elections are often distorted and this one had so much money it that it is hard to see how this can carryover to more general elections.

5.       I suspect a Trump was a large factor but how he effected turnout will have to be analyzed with more data.

6.       African-Americans turnout in large numbers and that mattered but not as much as the Republicans not voting.

7.       Georgia is now a competitive state between the parties but I would guess the Republicans will still win many of the races when Republican voters turnout.

 

10 predictions about the Biden Presidency

1.       His administration will increase the number of abortions worldwide.

2.       He will try and put limits on religious institutions.

3.       He will get us into another war

4.       He will increase taxes

5.       Economic growth will hover around 2%

6.       He will have better relations with Europe.

7.       He will have better relations with China.

8.       He will mess up our relationship with the Arabs to try and fail to repair relations with Iran.

9.       He will fail to bridge our cultural divide.

10.   He will be a one term President (He will be 82 at the end of his first term.)

 I haven't blogged in quite a while.  I am coming back to it because Facebook and twitter are too compromised.  The election was quite problematic with all the MSM totally against Trump.  The forces against religion are aligned with the Democrats, and Covid has messed up everything else.  I hope to bring more here soon.

Easter 2018

When I think of Easter so many thoughts come to mind. Jesus is the greatest symbol of hope, of a better future, and love and that we can focus on any of these to understand why so many of us are Christians. Yet, I think it is the God made man and the sacrifice of a son by a father that has always made such an impression on me. For Easter shows us what the deep relationship that God the father had with his son. No father could ever sacrifice a son for something except the greatest good. God the father gave up his son to atone for our sins and bring us to the possibility of everlasting life. That Jesus suffered for us is different than any other faith, since none of them have sacrifice, love, and hope that the Easter story has at it core. I wish you a happy Easter; peace, hope, and love.

How we got here.

1. The media did not do its job vetting candidates during the primary elections and held the big revelations for October and did us a big disservice.
2. Only 12 percent of the voters voted in the Republican primary elections and this is way too low.
3. Hillary Clinton scarred off serious opposition in the Democratic primary.
4. Money did not matter. Jeb Bush had more money than anyone and it did him no good.
5. The Republicans never faced up the challenge the Tea Party represented to them and when it became more populist had no answer.
6. The Republicans were never prepared for a candidate like Trump—Billionaire, populist, reality TV star, and gadfly.
7. 17 candidates split the Republican primary vote that did not allow anyone to challenge Trump until it was too late.
8. Ted Cruz was viewed by insiders as worse than Trump.
9. Conservatives are less numerous than most of us thought
10. Evangelical voters voted against their professed beliefs.

10 things I do not like about Hillary Clinton

1.     She will not hold a press conference

2.       She is afraid of making a mistake

3.       She lied to the public according to the FBI

4.       Her speaking style

5.       Her stand against the 2^nd Amendment

6.       Her stand against the Free Exercise clause

7.       Her reliance on really, very, big money

8.       Her actions/lack of actions on Benghazi

9.       Her seeming dislike of male voters

10.   Her acting as Secretary of State while her husband was taking funds for his global initiative from foreign governments. 

Random thoughts about the coming election

5 things I have been thinking about the election.
1. Will turnout matter. I think we will have a different electorate than 4 years ago and it will be interesting to see who turns out to vote.
2. Will there be a silent Trump vote. Trump is a weird candidate and I suspect there are people who will vote for him and not want to admit they will. How many?
3. The misogyny anti-Clinton vote. We know that some people will not vote for a woman. Generally, the literature I have seen says it is not significant and I hope that is right but again this will largely be hidden and so it will not show up in the polls.
4. Has the main stream media ever been so wholly against a candidate the way they are against Trump? Will this matter.
5. Can Hillary Clinton have a good finish. Clinton is not a natural candidate and makes mistakes. Can she avoid the pitfalls and finish strong?

Libertarian debate on CSPAN Tonight

I will never vote Libertarian and yet I intend to watch the debate to see what is new.  If you have nothing else to do on this holiday weekend tune in tonight.

Stop paying attention to head to head polls at this point. We need to look at the state polls after the conventions.

I wish all the people who have head to head polls would realize that what matters is winning the individual states to win the electoral college and stop trying to get us to think the national numbers at this point in the race mean anything.

Would Bernie Sanders want to be VP to Clinton?

If the Democrats retake the Senate Bernie Sanders would be chairman of the Senate Budget committee.  This job is much more powerful than being VP.  Would he take VP if offered?  I would not if I was him.  He is 74 and would be unlikely to get another shot at running for President so why take the VP?

Why Rubio makes the most sense for Trump's Vice-Presidential running mate.

Rubio left his senate seat to run for President.  Now out of office it would make sense for him to be a VP.   For Trump Rubio would bring energy and youth.   It makes more sense than a 73 year old Newt Gingrich.

What states can Trump win that Romney lost?

For the last year I have wanted a Republican candidate for President that could win states that Romney lost.  For instance, I knew Kasich could win Ohio.  I believe Bush could have won Florida.  But I cannot see any state that Trump can win that Romney lost.  The only way Trump wins is if Clinton cannot turn our her base and the minority vote is substantially less than 4 years ago.

Trump and the Republican Future

Right now I can see no way that Trump can win the Presidency.   I can see a way for Clinton to lose but that is not likely.   For Republicans the future is about who can survive the coming Trump loss.   That is especially true for the Senators running for reelection.

10 questions about America’s Foreign Policy

1.       What is America’s strategic global vision under President Obama?

2.       What is our strategy towards ISIS?

3.       What is our strategy towards Russia?

4.       What is our strategy towards Asia?

5.       What is our strategy towards China?

6.       Who are our allies?

7.       What is the future of NATO?

8.       How do we stay out of Sunni/Shia split in the Middle East?

9.       What is our global energy strategy?

10.   What is our global economic strategy?

Any answers?

10 questions for people who want to raise the minimum wage

1.       Should the minimum wage be the same in New York City and rural Alabama?

2.       Should people with experience be paid the same as people without?

3.       Should teenagers be paid the same as adults?

4.       Why would anyone open a business in areas that have an under-skilled work force if they have to pay them the same as areas that have skilled work force?

5.       Will companies actually hire less people at the same rate if you increase the minimum wage?

6.       Will companies automate instead of increasing employment if you raise the minimum wage?

7.       Will companies pass on the increase expense to the consumers if you raise the minimum wage?

8.       Will the minimum wage increase hurt younger workers?

9.       Will the wage scale for everyone increase because the minimum wage goes up?

10.   Will the minimum wage affect the poverty rate?

I ask these because I see many supporters of the minimum wage think that increasing it has no consequences. 

Fairhope Alabama is a great town to spend time during the 4th of July

We went for the third time for the 4th of July and are thinking about retiring in Fairhope.   It is in hurricane area which is the only thing wrong.  Any thoughts.

Moto X on Republic Wireless is great!

My wife has one of the early phones from Republic Wireless and it works for her (note she barely ever uses a phone.)  I waited for the Moto X and I am glad I did.   I opted for the 10 dollar a month plan for unlimited talk and text but data only on wifi.  This works for me and this is a great phone.

If you shop online you really should use

DEALNEWS  posts all deals they find online and tell you how much you save by buying it.  Overtime they are one of my go to sights to find bargains. 

I want to tell people how to save money.

First, if you have high speed internet do yourself a favor and get a Ooma for your home phones.  After the cost of the Ooma all you pay is the taxes.  I get my home phone service for under 4 dollars a month. 

Second, if you want cell phone service sign up at Republic Wireless where you get unlimited phone, text, and data for $19.95/month after you buy one of their phones for $99.00.  The way they do it is to use wifi for most things where wifi exists and that brings down the costs.

As I get other things I will pass them on.  If you have other hints add to the list!

Memorial Day!

This day is to remember all who have died in the service of our country.  We will never forget their sacrifice.  I want to thank all of them, their families, and the current soldiers who keep us safe.