2012 and the future

My crystal ball
 1.  Romney will the the Republican nominnee
 2. Marco Rubio will be the the Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee.
 3. Despite running the most negative campaign in history President Obama will lose and it will not be close.
 4. The Republicans will recapture the Senate and keep the House but both will have small margins of victory and it will be hard to govern.
 5. The Supreme court will find that the Affordable Care Health Care is in violation of the Constitution putting the first real limit on the Commerce clause and forcing the Republicans to find a new bill that will not work.
6. There will be no real reduction in spending.

Merry Christmas to all!

To everyone Merry Christmas!  To Christians the greatest story of Love! To non-Christian's this is a day when we care about everyone and hope you have a great day also!

Christopher Hitchens RIP

Hitchens was a great writer.   I really enjoyed reading him even when I didn't agree with him.  I know he didn't believe in God but any God would find him interesting so I hope to see him some time and the youthful Hitch who lived large.  God  Speed and may you be in heaven a half an hour before the devil knows your dead.

Social Mobility and History

In my last post I began talking about social mobility.  One friend commented about my statement about social mobility and history.  Throughout most of history there was little social mobility.  As I pointed out about about George Bernard Shaw's great play Pygmalion written in 1916 which was a play on social mobility.  It revealed that social mobility was frustrated by language, morals, manners, history and attitudes.  These facets of keeping people in their place were as important as class, economics, or education.  And in many places you can add caste to the list.

Modern social mobility with movie stars, sports stars, and other famous people generally has no language, morals, manners, history, class or any other barrier to mobility.  So, I do think modern social mobility is more diverse and different than the social barriers to mobility in history.

The complex nature of modern social mobility.For the left and many of my friends social mobility has been limited by the serious problem of bad public schools. For the right social mobility is taken for granted as we see the rapid change in status of movie stars, sports stars, and the heads of large corporations who often came from a different social standing than where they ended. All of this means that social mobility is complex and that trying to score points politically is probably easier than really analyzing social mobility in its complexity. Let’s start by acknowledging that history is no guide to social mobility. I spent much of my professional carrier studying Winston Churchill. Great Britain before WWI had little or no social mobility and it was easier for an American heist like Jennie Jerome, Winston Churchill’s mother, to marry into British society than for an average British woman to move up. Pygmalion, the great British play (that was eventually the basis of My Fair Lady,) showed how social mobility was based on many different aspects of British society including language, posture, and actions. In this country I believe social mobility was not anywhere near as fixed as it was in Great Britain but social mobility was really accelerated in the post World War 2 period. The GI Bill and the expansion of colleges meant that many people moved and social mobility accelerated. The public educational system worked well in the 1950’s and 1960’s to provide an educated work force for growing American economy. During the 1970’s stagflation and income stagnation meant that Woman entered the work force in large numbers to preserve the family income. Two earner families meant that social mobility continued but it also meant that many other problems would emerge including the problems in public education. From the 1970’s until today public education has fallen behind and is probably the source of much of the drop in social mobility. Yet, couples who marry, stay together and are reasonably healthy have maintained their positions in society. Single mothers, Divorce, and many other factors make it easy to fall down the economic scale. Because of Junior/community colleges Americans have the ability to reinvent themselves. They have the opportunity to flourish. I know some think social mobility has been limited but I remember a former car pool partner who was Belgian and how much he was amazed by how many opportunities America presented and how much Americans could just get ahead by working hard. I will right more about this as I research more about it but after yesterday I wanted to write more about it.For the left and many of my friends social mobility has been limited by the serious problem of bad public schools. For the right social mobility is taken for granted as we see the rapid change in status of movie stars, sports stars, and the heads of large corporations who often came from a different social standing than where they ended. All of this means that social mobility is complex and that trying to score points politically is probably easier than really analyzing social mobility in its complexity. Let’s start by acknowledging that history is no guide to social mobility. I spent much of my professional carrier studying Winston Churchill. Great Britain before WWI had little or no social mobility and it was easier for an American heist like Jennie Jerome, Winston Churchill’s mother, to marry into British society than for an average British woman to move up. Pygmalion, the great British play (that was eventually the basis of My Fair Lady,) showed how social mobility was based on many different aspects of British society including language, posture, and actions. In this country I believe social mobility was not anywhere near as fixed as it was in Great Britain but social mobility was really accelerated in the post World War 2 period. The GI Bill and the expansion of colleges meant that many people moved and social mobility accelerated. The public educational system worked well in the 1950’s and 1960’s to provide an educated work force for growing American economy. During the 1970’s stagflation and income stagnation meant that Woman entered the work force in large numbers to preserve the family income. Two earner families meant that social mobility continued but it also meant that many other problems would emerge including the problems in public education. From the 1970’s until today public education has fallen behind and is probably the source of much of the drop in social mobility. Yet, couples who marry, stay together and are reasonably healthy have maintained their positions in society. Single mothers, Divorce, and many other factors make it easy to fall down the economic scale. Because of Junior/community colleges Americans have the ability to reinvent themselves. They have the opportunity to flourish. I know some think social mobility has been limited but I remember a former car pool partner who was Belgian and how much he was amazed by how many opportunities America presented and how much Americans could just get ahead by working hard. I will right more about this as I research more about it but after yesterday I wanted to write more about it.

For the left and many of my friends social mobility has been limited by the serious problem of bad public schools. For the right social mobility is taken for granted as we see the rapid change in status of movie stars, sports stars, and the heads of large corporations who often came from a different social standing than where they ended. All of this means that social mobility is complex and that trying to score points politically is probably easier than really analyzing social mobility in its complexity.

Let’s start by acknowledging that history is no guide to social mobility. I spent much of my professional carrier studying Winston Churchill. Great Britain before WWI had little or no social mobility and it was easier for an American heist like Jennie Jerome, Winston Churchill’s mother, to marry into British society than for an average British woman to move up. Pygmalion, the great British play (that was eventually the basis of My Fair Lady,) showed how social mobility was based on many different aspects of British society including language, posture, and actions.

In this country I believe social mobility was not anywhere near as fixed as it was in Great Britain but social mobility was really accelerated in the post World War 2 period. The GI Bill and the expansion of colleges meant that many people moved and social mobility accelerated. The public educational system worked well in the 1950’s and 1960’s to provide an educated work force for growing American economy.

During the 1970’s stagflation and income stagnation meant that Woman entered the work force in large numbers to preserve the family income. Two earner families meant that social mobility continued but it also meant that many other problems would emerge including the problems in public education. From the 1970’s until today public education has fallen behind and is probably the source of much of the drop in social mobility.

Yet, couples who marry, stay together and are reasonably healthy have maintained their positions in society. Single mothers, Divorce, and many other factors make it easy to fall down the economic scale.

Because of Junior/community colleges Americans have the ability to reinvent themselves. They have the opportunity to flourish. I know some think social mobility has been limited but I remember a former car pool partner who was Belgian and how much he was amazed by how many opportunities America presented and how much Americans could just get ahead by working hard. I will right more about this as I research more about it but after yesterday I wanted to write more about it.

Can the Republican's running beat President Obama?

Spatula one of my friends asked based on the feelings for the candidates can any of these current Republicans beat President Obama?  My answer is simple, any Republican can beat Obama but they have to run a good campaign to win.  President Obama is beatable because of the economy, health care, and excessive spending.  If the election comes down to a referendum on Obama's policies he is toast.  Yet, the campaign will matter because the President is raising a billion dollars and most of that will be used against the Republican nominee.
I generally believe this election is setting up like 1980 where the voters are worried and voting will be against the incumbent but a billion dollars makes all this more complex than before.

Newt, Mitt and the future of the Republican Party

I left the party system a while ago because it was clear that there is a great difference between the parties in power and the parties out of power.  The Republican race this year seems to becoming a race between two well known figures--Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House, and Mitt Romney the former Governor of Massachusetts.  These are well known establishment figures in the party.  In power they are likely to be safe figures but can they withstand the pressures to spend that will be key to the future.  I know that Romney is talking the right talk.  Newt was a mixed bag of spending and good balancing when he was speaker.  I am comfortable that either would be better on spending than President Obama but how would they be as President.  Romney has the temperament and experience with big international events like the Olympics.  Newt has more ideas than any current politician and has the age and experience to know who he is.  I could live with either but I think Romney is more electable.  None of the candidates I really wanted, like Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan ran so I will support the Republican nominee but neither really excites me.